Exploration of the 22

In this muti-part article, I'll attempt to predict the Argentine starting lineup and formation for this Copa America by analyzing the player pool selected for the tournement.

Matches of Copa America will be played out 4 days apart. Fatigue, injuries, performances, suspensions... The player pool contains solutions for many problems a coach will have to face in the tournament. At the same time, all the players in it must fit the planned formation(s). To have enough players and substitutions best suited for their formations for the entire tournament with a 22 men playerpool is a complicated problem.
The complexity of the selection problem actually benefit us from a fan point of view. Because we know the solution already, just want to figure out what the formula (formation) looked like. We could also obtain all the variables (such as positions natural to each player) through research, so getting to within certain range of the real starting lineup and formation is a possible task.

I've pledged my allegiance to the 4-3-2-1 (4-4-2 diamond). But here I'll try to evaluate some other possible options, and attempt to compare these formations.

First, the unlikely formations need to be eliminated.

Let's start from the backline, since some formations require specified defense setup. So after analysing the defender player pool (which is only 7 players) we can hope to eliminate the formations unsuited to the player pool.

There are only 7 defenders. Their usual positions are:

Zanetti: RB, RWB and very rarely Winger.
33 yr old Zanetti doesn't push up as much as when he was young, usually staying in his own half and play more defensively.
Ayala: LCB, RCB
Heinze: LB , LCB
He's better at the LB position. Heinze can tackle well, but his ball distribution had been on some kind of decline IMHO. Also, Heinze lack the structural ability to order his defender partners around, he will stay on the left edge for the NT.
Milito: exclusive LCB
Díaz: RCB, LCB
He had partnered Morel from LCB for a while.
Ibarra: RB, RWB and occassionally RM
He's very similar to Zanetti. IIRC Ibarra might do a little more runs than the current Zanetti.
Burdisso: LB, LCB, RCB, RB, LM, RM

As we can see, 2 are capable of playing RWB and none of them is dedicated LWB.
Fullbacks we have 2 LB and 3 RB possibilities. Center back wise there are 5 suitable for LCB and 3 RCB.
CB positions are stacked by 5 capable players, backlines with only 1 CB would be inefficient use of the player pool and could therefore be eliminated. Namely 5-3-2 that morphs into 3-5-2. However, formations with 4 player backline featuring one wing back are still possibilities, although it'll has to be the right wing ( since there is no LWB) which further eliminate the LWB variations of these options. Furthermore, I don't believe our RWB are aggressive enough to be dedicated wing backs in a 4-4-2 transformed into 3-5-2. They can be used at right midfield but since the selection features better wing midfields, the options involving semi-out-of-positon usage of wing backs should also be eliminated.

I'm sorry to see our departure from 3-5-2, as it had been a very successful formation in Albicelestes history. We won the 86' world cup with a 3-5-2 (transformed from a 5-3-2). Time never stays still. 3-5-2 was a proud argentine invention but it's becoming obsolete and we should not let our emotions overtake our reasoning, so, Adiós 3-5-2!

Will we see some varient of 4-3-3? #4 Heinze is a stay at home type of defender, but #6 Ibarra can run the right wing up! Also, 4-3-3 can be played with forwards running channels so outside midfielders could maintain contact with the defenders. Is 4-3-3 suitable to our midfield and forward lineups? This formation will have to remain till next round of eliminations.

4-3-1-2 (4-4-2 diamond) is IMO our fundemental formation. It's also the most nortorious as Diego Maradona practically redefined center attacking midfield position with his displays in 4-3-1-2. One other son of Argentina is quite possibly now the best player in the world for this formation! I know you wanted me to say Riquelme, but sorry, I meant Mascherano! The triangular zone Mascher covers is in perfectly sync with the holding midfielder role in 4-3-1-2.

4-4-2 has been the dominating formation in the football world. But that's because it's essentially a defensive formation (6:4 defender-attacker ratio). Some variations and strategies exist to modify 4-4-2 into more offensively oriented formation, but generally by temperarily using a defensive player as attacker, and therefore sustaining the fundemental property of 6:4. So these modifications didn't make the formation more balanced, and therefore isn't very suited for a country that plays offensive football such as Argentina. The basic 4-4-2 is also obsolete for highend international teams even if they decided to deploy a defensive formation. some variations of 4-4-2 will be discussed in later parts.

4-4-1-1 is one of the most popular variations of 4-4-2 today. One of the strikers was replaced by a playmaker; both the center midfielders stay defensively and wing midfielders push up. In a traditional 4-4-1-1, there're relatively large spaces between the backline and the wingers, and 2 primary approaches to this problem exist. First one uses wing backs instead of full backs, this approach is not suited for Argentina because our lack of wing backs. The other solution is to have the 2 defensive midfielders line up diagonally so one of them would almost become a CM instead of CDM, so he could provide some distributions for the wings. This approach changes the formation almost to a 4-2-3-1, so I'll just mention it when evaluating 4-2-3-1. There's also an almost christmas tree formation like defensive variation of 4-4-1-1, I'm not lowering myself to write about it here, NO NEGATIVE FOOTBALL ALLOWED!

4-2-3-1 is probably a competition for 4-3-1-2. It's more defensive and emphesis more on possession and midfield controls. This formation also has the potential to make room on the wings, but unlike 4-4-1-1, the wingers need to maintain formation with holding midfielders and the CAM to restrict space in the middle for the formation to function properly defensively. Due to the defensive nature of this formation, we will see it only if Argentina really need to play defensively. In which case, if we start a game with 4-2-3-1, it could look more like the CM+CDM variation of 4-4-1-1.

Three (3 and 1/2 if we count the 4-4-1-1 variant seperately) suitable formations for Basile's 22 after evaluating the defenders. They are 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-1-2.

So, without further ado, let's look at the midfielders and their usual positions. Messi should be listed so his midfield potentials can be explored.

González: RM, RWM, RCM, CDM, CM
In some the games he played deep-lying playmaker for porto, which could be classified as a type of CM
Román: CAM, RCM, RM, RWM, LWM, LM, LCM
Riquelme's CAM position can also evolve into a SS position. They have very similar functions and a SS in the midfield could be considered a CAM
Mascherano: CDM
He can play at left center just as well as right center
Cambiasso: CDM, LCDM, LCM, RCM, RM, LM, CM
cuchu had also been subbed on as left back and CAM before
Gago: CM, CDM, LCM, RCM
another player equal at LCDM and RCDM
Verón: CAM, LCM, RCM, LM, RM, RWM, LWM
Aimar: CAM, LCM, RWM, LWM
Messi: RWM, LWM and recently CAM
messi played as right forward in the 4-3-3 christmas tree formation Barca used against Chelsea in CL.

Continue To Part.2:
4-3-3
4-2-3-1
4-3-1-2

To Conclusion